Decision Workshops

The fate of Gaddafi

These options summarize the politics involved in determining what will happen with Gaddafi. Although Gaddafi is would like a ceasefire the NTC is not prepared to give him one until he promises to leave the country. This he is not willing to do (especially as leaving the country may well mean a trip to the Hague for a war crimes trial).

Note that Gaddafi wants a ceasefire but not as much as he doesn't want to leave the country (and possibly go to The Hague).  The inducement given to Gaddafi (a cease fire) is just not strong enough.  To break the deadlock the inducement to Gaddafi has to be increased or the penalty decreased. The Berbers don't want a cease-fire as they are winning militarily.

 

Note that the NTC and International Community are technically neutral towards a cease fire. It is judged the advantage of not having a cease fire (they are slowly winning militarily) balances the disadvantages (humanitarian concerns).  This is not the case with the people of Tripoli who would love a cease-fire, but cannot get one as they do not have enough powerful cards for their voice to be heard.

fate