Decision Workshops

NTC membership

The composition and power within the NTC will be vital in determining the success of the revolution. Even at the time of the workshop there was disquiet in the Arab world that the revoluitons in Tunisia and Egypt had achieved less than had been hoped.  If the NTC mishandles Libya then the revolution may have less practical benefits than had been hoped.  

 

The NTC is itself a polyglot mixture of those who, according to rumours in the Arab world were planning a coup with Saif, those who had fled into exile from Gaddafi and other idealists who had joined the cause.

 

There is also a number representing the approximate percentage of real power resting with that person.

Abdul Fatali Younis: A Libyan military man.  He was one of the first to defect, so is being kept by the rebels to encourage others to defect.  He is unpopular in Tripoli and they would like to see him go.  He is trying to get the Libyan rebel army organized.

Mahmoud Jibril: Somewhat embarrasingly from the Al Warfali tribe (a pro Gaddafi tribe), is the diplomatic head of the NTC.

 

He used to work in a US university and has published academic books on strategy.

Mustafa Abdul Jalil: An ex-member of the Gaddafi regime, but one that was respected. Is popular in his role as chairman of the NTC.

Kalifa Haftar is a rival to Younis, and a former commander in Chad. He had been living in the USA and has been sent back with US support. He is now the commander on the rebel ground forces (under Younis). He is unpopular with the Berbers and the Tripoli. Had previously led a counter revolutionary group having been captured in the Chad war

Mahmound Sharmam is a very respected man in the media, equally critical of all. Popular with the people. He has a heavy Benghazi accent. He has little actual power.

The NTC needs representatives and lobbyists from the Berbers. There are some Berber members, but they may not have much political leverage. The Berbers represent about 10% of the population

 

Similarly there is as yet little representation of Tripoli on the NTC, despite about 50% of the population coming from this region

 

There is a considerable number of people living in areas loyal to Gaddafi who do not have representation on the NTC. Even if it is unacceptable for Gaddafi to have a role in a post war government, is it unacceptable for these people to?

Saif Gaddafi. The Gaddafi family wish to remain in power, At the moment any political power going to them or their having any say in post-war government is strongly opposed. This does not mean that the Gaddafis will not have a go,

General Younis was arrested and assassinated on his way to trial on 28th July 2011 (9 days after the workshop was held). Although the assassination was not directly predicted at the workshop, the workshop did predict that there would be a power struggle between the members of the NTC with clear winners and losers.

 

General Younis was one of those who lost in the struggle.

Note:

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