Decision Workshops

The fate of Gaddafi

The workshop started off with the Gaddafi player offering to withdraw from Tripoli in exchange for a cease fire.  This was a deal that was advantageous for all the parties.  It was argued that it would be hard for the International Community and the NTC to reject. It was argued that Gaddafi may do this because of his vulnerability in Tripoli.

 

Although the NTC would not agree on a unilateral cease fire, it was tempted by the offer of the prize of Tripoli.

 

During the cease fire and withdrawal, Muammar Gaddafi moved into the south of the country (the desert region near Chad) effectively going into internal exile, and his son Saif moved the remains of the army to Gaddafi's home town of Sirte.

 

As the cease fire solidified, although the majority of the population was now outside Gadhafi’s control, he still maintained control of a large area of Desert in the south (Fezzan) and Sirte.

 

As the dust settled people realised that Gaddafi had unilaterally gone into internal exile, but given the reward, perhaps it was worth it

Effect on Cards in play

This withdrawal had a large ripple effect on the cards in play. Firstly the cease-fire and the internal exile

The cease-fire also meant that NATO air support stopped (although a no-fly zone was introduced).

But perhaps the most important thing was that the withdrawal left a power vacuum in Tripoli.

 

The next page looks at the situation there.

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