Decision Workshops
Euro exit:- The players involved
As in any dilemma we assume the principle that:
"All parties in a conflict that are not individual people are themselves alliances of bickering sub-parties. These parties will have their own internal disputes, but when faced with an external threat will close ranks to present a united front to the enemy"
The most obvious example of this is the party "Europe"
Europe
This represents a combination of:
● The European Central Bank
● The German Government
● The European Commission
Although these parties have different agendas and powers they are united in their support of the Euro and greater European integration, and their opposition to an Italian exit or quantitative easing as the solution to the problem...
In the scenario it is unlikely that many other parties other than these three will be consulted.' as to do so would intolerably slow negotiations. The major European players will act now, and obtain forgiveness afterwards.
China
This represents a combination of:
● The People's Bank of China
● The Chinese government
There may be some friction between these two entities, but it will be assumed that the Chinese Government will control the moves of the People's Bank of China. These parties will be lobbying for the economic benefit and unity of China.
Russia
This represents a combination of:
● The Central Bank of Russia
● The Russian government
These parties will act in concert for the economic benefit of Russia.
Qatar
This represents a combination of:
● The Government investment funds
● The Government themselves
of wealthy gulf oil producing states such as:
● Qatar
● the UAE
● Kuwait
● Saudi Arabia
● Bahrain
The government of Qatar has been chosen as representative of this as it has interests diametrically opposed to Russia, it being a rival exporter of natural gas to Europe.
These parties are unlikely to risk their assets, but wish them to maintain their value.
